Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0325…355d crypto 1245 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$359 (-6%) realized −$359 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%694W / 550L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$441
politics 2% +$5
other 1% +$14
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 29% -8.0%
≤30d 433 -4.1% -13.3% 81% 39% -12.6%
≤90d 1244 -11.3% -19.7% 56% 39% -16.6%
all 1244 -11.3% -19.7% 56% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 39% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 29% -24.6%
15% -34.4% 21% -31.8%
20% -40.9% 16% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses694 / 550
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1244 / 1245
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 57m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.83 · official $29.83 (match) · 2959 history records