Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

03 0x0327…6b01 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$36 (+6%) realized +$38 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day14.7pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+29.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+42.9%	+29.3%	56%	50%	+46.6%
≤30d	16	+42.9%	+29.3%	56%	50%	+46.6%
≤90d	16	+42.9%	+29.3%	56%	50%	+46.6%
all	16	+42.9%	+29.3%	56%	50%	+46.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.3%	50%	+46.6%
10%	+16.9%	50%	+32.6%
15%	+5.6%	50%	+19.7%
20%	-4.7%	38%	+8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$16 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$180

Realized+$38

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day14.7

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	42¢	42¢	$182	$180	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 30	$200	−$15	-8%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$52	+$298	+578%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$18	−$17	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 27	$25	−$24	-97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$40	−$36	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 27	$15	+$5	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$19	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$13	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$4	+73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 27	$10	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 27	$10	+$8	+75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 27	$10	+$16	+157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$2	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Morocco	42¢	$185	15m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	28¢	$185	15m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$200	52m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	SELL Paraguay	100¢	$350	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	15¢	$19	3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	14¢	$32	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$25	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	8¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$9	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$18	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$14	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND	BUY	11¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.71 · official $179.71 (match) · 39 history records