Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x032a…cf07 other 582 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$750 (-32%) realized −$716 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%42W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$453
14 days−$462
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$98
other 22% −$192
politics 9% −$152
sports 9% −$71
economics 7% −$133
crypto 4% −$16
tech 2% −$29
weather 2% −$31
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -60.1% -63.9% 8% 8% -58.6%
≤30d 366 -43.1% -48.5% 8% 7% -40.8%
≤90d 563 -53.4% -57.8% 7% 7% -43.8%
all 563 -53.4% -57.8% 7% 7% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.8% 7% -43.8%
10% ← realistic here -61.9% 6% -49.1%
15% -65.6% 5% -54.1%
20% -68.9% 4% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$716
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses42 / 521
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions19
Markets (closed)563 / 582
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $14 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes $9 $4 −$4 (-51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes $9 $3 −$6 (-65%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Yes $11 $1 −$10 (-88%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +685%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -71%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +455%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -37%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rodrygo be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ballroom project unblocked by May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes $2 55m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes $1 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $2 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $2 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $4 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes $3 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.86 · official $73.90 (match) · 3500 history records