Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x032b…0cf2 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 39% +$6
politics 14% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 0% -8.7%
all 47 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage354d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 49¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $70 +$3 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $22 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $170 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $185 +$5 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 -4%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 05 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $42 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $40 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $3 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $37 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $43 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $33 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $21 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.63 · official $42.63 (match) · 160 history records