Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x032d…7168 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-5%) realized −$188 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$134
14 days−$197
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$348
politics 38% −$27
sports 17% +$147
world 1% −$44
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.1% -59.4% 20% 20% -25.6%
≤30d 43 -11.9% -20.3% 26% 26% -12.5%
≤90d 47 -13.7% -21.9% 26% 26% -16.4%
all 48 -15.5% -23.5% 25% 25% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 25% -17.2%
10% -30.8% 23% -25.2%
15% -37.5% 21% -32.4%
20% -43.6% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$28 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$795
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions15
Markets (closed)48 / 63
History coverage118d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $310 $288 −$23 (-7%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $169 $163 −$6 (-4%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bruno Guimarães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-17%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $74 $46 −$29 (-39%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-32%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $122 −$120 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $452 +$90 +20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $19 −$2 -11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -40%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $35 −$19 -56%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$35 +224%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$118 +210%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $88 +$132 +150%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$3 -20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$61 +238%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $255 −$28 -11%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -37%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$41 -81%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 +$41 +40%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 25 $62 +$23 +37%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $28 −$4 -15%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $59 −$30 -52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 −$99 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 26h
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 64¢ $8 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $122 44h
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 47h
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 64¢ $203 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 3d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 4d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $90 4d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 4d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 4d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 4d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 4d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $83 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 5d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 5d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 6d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.99 · official $795.19 (match) · 235 history records