Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x032e…2a9e
sports · 118 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$141,913 -103%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158,243 · open +$16,932
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$207,324
Realized−$158,243
Unrealized+$16,932
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses59 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$1,182
Open positions150
Markets (closed)368 / 118
Avg bet$1,170
Trades / day3451.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 150 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158,244
7 days−$158,244
14 days−$158,244
30 days−$158,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $37,308 $35,905 −$1,403 (-4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 39¢ 81¢ $9,053 $18,982 +$9,929 (+110%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $14,696 $14,250 −$446 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $13,090 $12,850 −$239 (-2%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 48¢ 80¢ $5,656 $9,379 +$3,723 (+66%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 57¢ 81¢ $5,996 $8,581 +$2,584 (+43%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $7,860 $7,561 −$298 (-4%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $6,096 $6,245 +$149 (+2%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $5,808 $5,858 +$51 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 52¢ 52¢ $4,964 $4,916 −$48 (-1%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 43¢ 80¢ $2,576 $4,797 +$2,221 (+86%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $4,447 $4,690 +$242 (+5%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 52¢ $3,403 $4,393 +$990 (+29%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $3,127 $3,034 −$93 (-3%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 63¢ 62¢ $3,012 $2,991 −$21 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2,799 $2,768 −$30 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $2,706 $2,732 +$26 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 80¢ $2,790 $2,613 −$177 (-6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2,577 $2,514 −$62 (-2%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 81¢ 100¢ $2,025 $2,511 +$487 (+24%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $2,437 $2,499 +$62 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $2,324 $2,349 +$24 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2,289 $2,267 −$21 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 100¢ $1,164 $2,198 +$1,034 (+89%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Knicks 48¢ 46¢ $2,231 $2,161 −$70 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $2,025 −$650 -32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,164 +$1,026 +88%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $1,011 +$842 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $391 +$320 +82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $171 +$114 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $102 +$95 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-18.5) Jun 12 $153 +$16 +11%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 12 $40 +$43 +108%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $46 +$26 +56%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 12 $37 +$27 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14 +$48 +339%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $28 +$29 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 12 $40 +$12 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $24 +$25 +104%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $21 +$28 +133%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $21 +$23 +108%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $27 +$15 +54%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $28 +$12 +43%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta Jun 12 $19 +$20 +104%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $22 +$10 +47%
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 12 $23 +$6 +28%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 12 $21 +$7 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 12 $21 +$7 +35%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 12 $15 +$13 +92%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +61%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 12 $13 +$13 +96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $12 +$13 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $17 +$8 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14 +$10 +75%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 12 $19 +$4 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 12 $15 +$3 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $7 +$8 +122%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$6 +133%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $4 +$8 +189%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 12 $20 −$17 -85%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$24,950
other 49% +$27,651
crypto 1% −$21
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $7 3m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $7 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $14 5m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $117 6m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $9 7m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $9 7m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $48 7m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $7 8m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $39 10m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $7 10m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $25 13m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $25 13m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $4 13m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $4 13m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 14m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 14m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $48 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 20m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $19 24m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $6 27m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 27m
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 31m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 32m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $24 36m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $148 36m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 78¢ $39 37m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 78¢ $39 37m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $12 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 15% -65.1%
≤30d 368 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 15% -65.1%
≤90d 368 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 15% -65.1%
all 368 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 15% -65.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3451.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.9% 15% -65.1%
10% -71.8% 14% -68.5%
15% ← realistic here -74.6% 12% -71.5%
20% -77.1% 10% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207,323.93 · official $207,324.01 (match) · 3500 history records