Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0330…b6f4 politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$1
economics 3% $0
sports 3% −$11
crypto 3% +$2
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 1 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤90d 6 -19.8% -27.4% 67% 17% -20.8%
all 28 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 11% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 7% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage602d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 85¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $15 −$8 -51%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 04 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Mar 03 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $53 −$53 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 05 $69 +$49 +72%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,829 +$4 +0%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 04 $17 $0 -2%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 04 $14 $0 -2%
Trump sentenced to no prison time? Nov 04 $30 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 04 $17 $0 -2%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 04 $15 $0 -3%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 04 $16 $0 -3%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 04 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY No 79¢ $10 40d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $20 40d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? BUY No 87¢ $20 60d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 60d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 91¢ $15 91d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 91d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 111d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? SELL Yes 69¢ $21 111d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 112d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $20 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 96¢ $19 154d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 267d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 271d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 380d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 380d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 412d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 412d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 442d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 442d
Liverpool wins the Premier League? SELL Yes 98¢ $118 444d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $27 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 468d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 468d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.25 (match) · 153 history records