Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0331…ba65 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$320 (-10%) realized −$330 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$66
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$507
world 20% +$39
politics 18% −$66
sports 7% +$188
culture 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.7% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 33% -0.7%
≤90d 15 -28.7% -35.5% 40% 20% -8.6%
all 49 -39.3% -45.1% 33% 16% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 16% -22.2%
10% -50.4% 12% -29.7%
15% -55.2% 10% -36.5%
20% -59.6% 8% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$25 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)49 / 60
History coverage199d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $158 $191 +$33 (+21%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 12¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $51 −$2 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $153 −$48 -32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $223 +$203 +91%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $250 −$177 -71%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $266 +$134 +50%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $20 +$1 +7%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 08 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? Mar 29 $59 +$2 +4%
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? Mar 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 202 Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 202 Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $150 +$62 +42%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 19 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 16 $25 −$22 -87%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$18 +354%
Will France win? Mar 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Mar 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 06 $25 +$5 +20%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 24 $45 −$7 -16%
Will Italy win? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Ireland win? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jan 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $50 +$12 +25%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Jan 05 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $192 +$4 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 67¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 76¢ $49 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 26¢ $105 10d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 33¢ $103 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $104 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 17¢ $73 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $66 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 63¢ $47 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $204 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $400 26d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 50d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 54d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 58d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 64¢ $10 58d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $50 66d
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nat BUY Yes 23¢ $5 67d
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Natio BUY Yes 27¢ $5 67d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.82 · official $532.62 (match) · 207 history records