Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
03 0x0336…4bb0 sports 516 markets active 8h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41,390 (+8%) realized +$41,368 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%263W / 248L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$983per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$2,015est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,685
7 days+$9,050
14 days+$1,849
30 days+$5,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$33,878
other 23% +$9,011
culture 2% −$2,664
world 2% −$910
politics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +63.4% +47.8% 70% 70% +16.8%
≤30d 152 +22.4% +10.7% 56% 55% -5.1%
≤90d 372 +3.7% -6.1% 51% 46% -1.7%
all 511 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 45% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 45% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 38% -11.8%
15% -26.3% 32% -20.3%
20% -33.5% 27% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$735) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$665 vs −$547 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized+$41,368
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses263 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,015
Open positions5
Markets (closed)511 / 516
History coverage110d
Avg bet$983
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $379 $399 +$21 (+5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 82¢ 81¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $279 $280 +$2 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 97¢ $270 $272 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $1,495 +$318 +21%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $313 −$77 -25%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2,331 −$2,300 -99%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $260 +$362 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $302 +$63 +21%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $32 +$48 +152%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $372 +$74 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $188 +$156 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2,411 +$413 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $276 +$237 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,020 +$965 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$56 +2721%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $204 +$396 +194%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $136 +$90 +66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $141 +$26 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $222 +$92 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $148 +$351 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $154 +$33 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $913 +$214 +23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $184 +$152 +83%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $87 +$24 +27%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $183 +$171 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $111 +$80 +72%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $526 +$345 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $188 +$149 +79%
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2.5) Jun 13 $578 −$570 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $127 −$124 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,118 −$1,100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $173 +$205 +119%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,066 +$3,387 +110%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $6,565 +$6,121 +93%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $561 +$145 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $609 −$600 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $104 −$103 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $95 +$79 +83%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $80 +$23 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $252 −$248 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $1,835 −$1,800 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,638 +$929 +57%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $506 +$292 +58%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$110 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $147 −$144 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $150 −$147 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $163 −$160 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $1,495 8h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $75 9h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $387 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $402 10h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $10 23h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $100 23h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $100 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $304 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $1,013 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $1,013 24h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $102 24h
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia BUY Gimnasia 36¢ $53 28h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 35¢ $49 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $372 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $302 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $2,411 3d
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 39¢ $32 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $1,010 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $1,010 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $270 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 60¢ $10 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 60¢ $10 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 61¢ $30 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 34¢ $102 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 33¢ $102 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 59¢ $86 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $503 4d
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2.5) BUY British Columbia Lions 54¢ $578 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $123 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,423.88 · official $1,423.93 (match) · 1478 history records