Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x0337…a38e other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$408 (-45%) realized −$425 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$178
14 days−$273
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 50% -57.3%
≤30d 6 -59.9% -63.7% 17% 17% -62.9%
≤90d 6 -59.9% -63.7% 17% 17% -62.9%
all 6 -59.9% -63.7% 17% 17% -62.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 17% -62.9%
10% -67.2% 17% -66.5%
15% -70.4% 17% -69.7%
20% -73.3% 0% -72.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$99 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage19d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $149 $166 +$17 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $237 −$225 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$91 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $213 −$96 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $90 −$79 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $156 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $147 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $12 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $18 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $13 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $14 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $7 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $11 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $142 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $24 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $56 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes $117 17d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $202 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes $11 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $13 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $31 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $47 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.12 · official $166.12 (match) · 27 history records