Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
03 0x033b…b4ea other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$83
sports 17% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 4 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 4 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 25% -7.7%
all 4 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 25% -7.7%
10% -32.9% 25% -16.6%
15% -39.4% 0% -24.6%
20% -45.3% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$44 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$87 -85%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records