Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x033f…618e
other · 1055 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$165,978 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$165,987 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,244
Realized+$165,987
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses848 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$1,243
Open positions98
Markets (closed)971 / 1055
History coverage26d
Avg bet$645
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 98 History 971 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,229
7 days+$11,636
14 days+$43,736
30 days+$165,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 52¢ 64¢ $461 $575 +$114 (+25%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $502 $507 +$5 (+1%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 53¢ 62¢ $355 $415 +$59 (+17%)
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 55¢ 100¢ $219 $396 +$178 (+81%)
Will Steven Fisk finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $366 $365 −$1 (-0%)
Will Steven Fisk finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $340 $337 −$3 (-1%)
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will John Vanderlaan finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $330 $327 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $330 $327 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $320 $319 −$1 (-0%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next? No 50¢ 86¢ $149 $258 +$109 (+74%)
Will Steven Fisk finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goals No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Liam Millar: 1+ goals No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 52¢ 99¢ $84 $160 +$76 (+90%)
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? Yes 46¢ 33¢ $176 $127 −$49 (-28%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 79¢ 80¢ $121 $124 +$3 (+2%)
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals No 100¢ 95¢ $124 $117 −$7 (-5%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 35¢ 40¢ $91 $105 +$14 (+15%)
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Vanderlaan finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 51¢ 63¢ $77 $95 +$19 (+24%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $507 $89 −$418 (-82%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $70 $89 +$19 (+27%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 47¢ 42¢ $96 $86 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Paul Waring win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will Mark Hubbard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $6,435 +$242 +4%
Will Mark Hubbard finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $201 $0 +0%
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $162 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Patrik Schick: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Patrik Schick: 3+ Goals Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $230 +$3 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $180 +$2 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $143 +$1 +1%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 12 $145 +$5 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $626 +$6 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 12 $1 +$23 +1914%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Roya Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$27 +54%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1,599 +$4,200 +263%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $23 +$8 +34%
Humbert vs. Bonzi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $39 +$11 +27%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $198 +$24 +12%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji: O/U 158.5 Jun 10 $182 −$182 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Tony Finau finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourname Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $71 −$71 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$112,232
sports 35% +$53,803
culture 2% −$185
world 0% +$122
politics 0% +$5
weather 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Liam Millar: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $188 6m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 7m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $147 7m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 7m
Liam Millar: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 7m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $14 7m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $114 7m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 7m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $84 8m
Tajon Buchanan: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 8m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 8m
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 8m
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 8m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 10m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 5+ shots BUY No 96¢ $5 13m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 13m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Esmir Bajraktarević: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 14m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 14m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 15m
Liam Millar: 1+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 15m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 16m
Tajon Buchanan: 3+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $5 22m
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $5 22m
Liam Millar: 5+ shots BUY No 98¢ $10 26m
Liam Millar: 2+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $10 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 21% -4.9%
≤30d 971 +15.7% +4.7% 87% 20% +5.9%
≤90d 971 +15.7% +4.7% 87% 20% +5.9%
all 971 +15.7% +4.7% 87% 20% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.7% 20% +5.9%
10% -5.4% 15% -4.3%
15% ← realistic here -14.5% 13% -13.5%
20% -22.9% 10% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,243.60 · official $7,243.65 (match) · 3500 history records