trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 11¢ | 11¢ | $24 | $24 | −$0 (-0%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | 65¢ | 56¢ | $24 | $21 | −$3 (-13%) |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 11¢ | 10¢ | $14 | $13 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 14¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$10 | +126% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$5 | +44% |
| Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele | Jun 11 | $11 | −$3 | -24% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 10 | $19 | −$13 | -68% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $53 | −$16 | -30% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $9 | +$2 | +27% |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? | Jun 09 | $32 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $28 | −$2 | -6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $104 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 08 | $14 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $37 | −$4 | -10% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 43% | 29% | -13.9% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 43% | 29% | -13.9% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 43% | 29% | -13.9% |
| all | 14 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 43% | 29% | -13.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.3% | 29% | -13.9% |
| 10% | -13.4% | 29% | -22.1% |
| 15% | -21.8% | 14% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -29.5% | 7% | -36.6% |