Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x033f…05ef crypto 722 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$134 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%423W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$1
14 days−$17
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$59
crypto 42% −$51
other 10% −$23
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 64% -9.0%
≤30d 150 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 48% -15.5%
≤90d 717 -6.2% -15.2% 59% 52% -14.5%
all 717 -6.2% -15.2% 59% 52% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 52% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 37% -22.6%
15% -30.7% 30% -30.1%
20% -37.5% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses423 / 294
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)717 / 722
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 88¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+67%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 8¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+100%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4 +$3 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$3 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $6 +$5 +88%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 05 $5 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +81%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $8 +$5 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $3 +$3 +91%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champions May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 31 $6 +$4 +78%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $5 +$2 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $4 +$6 +175%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $5 +$6 +121%
Centurion: Robert Strombachs vs Robin Bertrand May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $3 +$3 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $4 50m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $5 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $5 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $7 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $7 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 71¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $4 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $4 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 10h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5 35h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $9 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $6 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.47 · official $41.47 (match) · 3500 history records