Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0340…f97d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-23%) realized −$80 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$22
other 42% −$140
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-81.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -79.6% -81.6% 9% 9% -81.9%
≤30d 11 -79.6% -81.6% 9% 9% -81.9%
≤90d 11 -79.6% -81.6% 9% 9% -81.9%
all 11 -79.6% -81.6% 9% 9% -81.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.6% 9% -81.9%
10% -83.3% 9% -83.7%
15% -84.9% 0% -85.2%
20% -86.4% 0% -86.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $122 $126 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $64 −$62 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $124 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 20h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 100¢ $10 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 21h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $10 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.70 · official $125.70 (match) · 19 history records