Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

03 0x0340…16a8 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$255 (+22%) realized +$255 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$381per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+30.3%
≤30d	3	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+30.3%
≤90d	3	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+30.3%
all	3	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+30.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.0%	100%	+30.3%
10%	+23.0%	67%	+17.8%
15%	+11.1%	67%	+6.4%
20%	+0.2%	33%	-4.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$168 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$255

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$381

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	Jun 28	$488	+$191	+39%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$401	+$76	+19%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 27	$254	+$236	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	SELL T1	100¢	$679	59m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$477	1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	84¢	$375	2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	84¢	$26	2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	BUY T1	74¢	$83	2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	BUY T1	74¢	$285	2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	BUY T1	66¢	$99	3h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)	BUY T1	66¢	$22	3h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Rafael Fiziev	100¢	$491	11h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Rafael Fiziev	51¢	$254	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records