Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0341…9294 sports 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$410 (+7%) realized +$530 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%63W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$369
14 days+$369
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$776
other 38% −$249
politics 5% −$201
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 31% -2.2%
≤30d 194 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 31% -2.2%
≤90d 194 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 31% -2.2%
all 195 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 32% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 32% -1.5%
10% -18.6% 32% -10.9%
15% -26.4% 31% -19.5%
20% -33.7% 30% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$20 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses63 / 132
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions20
Markets (closed)195 / 217
History coverage441d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $106 $114 +$8 (+7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 69¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 32¢ $41 $33 −$8 (-20%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $41 $27 −$14 (-35%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $53 $25 −$28 (-53%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $30 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 36¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-12%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 8¢ $23 $8 −$15 (-66%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 8¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 13¢ 2¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 −$20 -45%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 +$83 +388%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$58 +136%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$73 +238%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 +$131 +510%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 +$55 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $119 +$87 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$64 +165%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $13 +$39 +291%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$72 +226%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $22 +$83 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $38 +$65 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$40 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$48 +86%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$101 +980%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $24 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $42 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $71 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $14 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 6h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 6h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 6h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 6h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 6h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $109 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 6h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $22 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 3¢ $3 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $38 12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 14h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 14h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.26 · official $591.55 · 450 history records