Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0341…7828 world 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 61L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$13
other 25% −$1
politics 18% +$1
sports 13% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.5% +2.7% 50% 17% -5.0%
≤30d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 77 +5.1% -4.9% 35% 5% -9.3%
all 98 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.3% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 61
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage453d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $103 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$6 +87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $89 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $187 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $129 −$3 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $189 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $132 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $207 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $183 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $83 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $16 −$2 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $52 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $94 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $129 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $96 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $133 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $275 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $257 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $171 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $187 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $87 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $103 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $81 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $93 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $86 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $102 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $102 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $35 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $97 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $97 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $73 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.05 · official $103.17 (match) · 408 history records