Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0342…4177 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$11 (+14%) realized +$37 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$28
world 14% +$9
tech 14% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.1% +20.4% 67% 67% +4.4%
≤30d 3 +33.1% +20.4% 67% 67% +4.4%
≤90d 3 +33.1% +20.4% 67% 67% +4.4%
all 3 +33.1% +20.4% 67% 67% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 67% +4.4%
10% +8.9% 33% -5.6%
15% -1.6% 33% -14.7%
20% -11.3% 33% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 29 $29 −$3 -11%
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $10 +$10 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $25 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $12 3h
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 3h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $17 13h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $19 14h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $10 31h
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $1.31 (match) · 10 history records