Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x0343…f2dc other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,256 (+16%) realized +$13,987 · open +$269
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$7,359per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$31,789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,476
7 days+$3,476
14 days+$3,431
30 days+$11,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$3,692
sports 13% +$8,254
politics 1% −$45
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 0% -2.1%
≤30d 5 +15.1% +4.1% 60% 20% +9.4%
≤90d 8 +7.0% -3.2% 38% 12% +9.1%
all 8 +7.0% -3.2% 38% 12% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 12% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 12% -1.4%
15% -20.9% 12% -10.9%
20% -28.7% 12% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,910 vs −$20 · ×197.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×118.29 per $1 lost it wins $118.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$31,789
Realized+$13,987
Unrealized+$269
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7,359
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $15,942 $15,828 −$114 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $14,556 $14,919 +$363 (+2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 73¢ $572 $588 +$16 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $449 $453 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42,244 +$3,476 +8%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,826 −$45 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $11,746 +$8,254 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $627 −$45 -7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $68 −$5 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $42 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $4,177 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18,466 4h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $1,831 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4,446 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22,808 14h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $10,003 37h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6,993 7d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $577 8d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $88 10d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,414 10d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $700 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $803 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 12d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,499 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 12d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,779 12d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,781 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $152 12d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $364 12d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 13d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 14d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,622 14d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $63 14d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $135 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7,644 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,403 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6,942 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,788.75 · official $31,788.75 (match) · 130 history records