Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0349…b455 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-39%) realized −$82 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$397
sports 26% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.1% -52.1% 33% 33% -27.7%
≤30d 3 -47.1% -52.1% 33% 33% -27.7%
≤90d 3 -47.1% -52.1% 33% 33% -27.7%
all 3 -47.1% -52.1% 33% 33% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 33% -27.7%
10% -56.7% 33% -34.6%
15% -60.9% 33% -40.9%
20% -64.7% 0% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$87 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 76¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $201 +$92 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $291 −$174 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 0¢ $1 29m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $200 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 76¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $296 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $123 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.53 · official $292.53 (match) · 12 history records