Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
03 0x034b…b22b sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,040 (-2%) realized −$5,287 · open −$753
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%84W / 50L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,913per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$436est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$7,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days−$660
14 days+$430
30 days+$1,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$37,824
other 29% +$27,187
crypto 1% +$1,817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 60% -12.9%
≤30d 14 +6.1% -4.0% 86% 64% -3.9%
≤90d 68 -1.4% -10.8% 62% 54% -22.4%
all 134 -0.6% -10.1% 63% 58% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 58% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -20.5%
15% -26.5% 28% -28.2%
20% -33.7% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,156 vs −$2,103 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$7,809
Realized−$5,287
Unrealized−$753
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses84 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$436
Open positions19
Markets (closed)134 / 153
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,913
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $2,000 $1,462 −$538 (-27%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,338 $1,340 +$2 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 92¢ $863 $859 −$5 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 84¢ $764 $749 −$15 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 94¢ 93¢ $634 $632 −$2 (-0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 91¢ 90¢ $343 $341 −$2 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 89¢ 90¢ $335 $337 +$2 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 79¢ 76¢ $341 $332 −$9 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 86¢ $256 $254 −$2 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 84¢ $246 $243 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 78¢ 78¢ $196 $195 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 78¢ 77¢ $182 $180 −$2 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 80¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-0%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 79¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 30¢ 12¢ $300 $125 −$175 (-58%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 86¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 83¢ 82¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$8 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,619 +$794 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $281 +$9 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,304 −$1,312 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,029 +$1,817 +90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $488 +$12 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $1,410 +$412 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $2,478 +$678 +27%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $2,012 +$490 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2,005 +$169 +8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $1,729 −$1,700 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 07 $1,525 +$1,769 +116%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 May 06 $508 −$500 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 06 $510 +$1,052 +206%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) May 06 $509 +$800 +157%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 May 05 $2,000 +$1,831 +92%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Apr 13 $1,000 −$984 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $229 +$52 +23%
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 12 $1,270 +$1,000 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 11 $4,400 −$4,337 -99%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 11 $300 +$32 +11%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 10 $6,702 −$6,664 -99%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 09 $4,945 +$1,125 +23%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4,982 +$1,526 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 08 $487 −$10 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $186 +$63 +34%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 08 $229 +$66 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $290 +$35 +12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1,157 −$1,151 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 06 $411 +$35 +8%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 06 $3,541 +$559 +16%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 02 $2,400 −$2,372 -99%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Apr 01 $22 +$30 +133%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5) Apr 01 $1,113 +$1,103 +99%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 01 $2,625 +$1,111 +42%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 01 $7,355 −$7,355 -100%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Mar 31 $2,856 −$2,821 -99%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Mar 29 $500 −$498 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $950 −$946 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 28 $1,000 +$1,128 +113%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 28 $6,000 +$7,043 +117%
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves Mar 27 $420 −$420 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 27 $17 +$11 +61%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $47 +$15 +33%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 27 $65 +$16 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 43m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $306 44m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $126 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $136 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $103 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $136 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $59 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $57 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $70 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $65 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $173 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $171 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $176 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $111 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $122 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $633 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $289 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $54 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $176 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $173 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $172 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $336 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $211 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 78¢ $49 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $105 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $173 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 78¢ $148 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $112 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $177 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,809.27 · official $7,819.22 (match) · 308 history records