Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x034b…154e crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$298
sports 5% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.9% +2.1% 83% 67% -1.0%
≤30d 12 +12.9% +2.1% 83% 67% -1.0%
≤90d 12 +12.9% +2.1% 83% 67% -1.0%
all 12 +12.9% +2.1% 83% 67% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 67% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 25% -10.4%
15% -16.6% 8% -19.1%
20% -24.8% 0% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$58 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.71 per $1 lost it wins $3.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $303 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $393 +$42 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $407 −$38 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $255 +$80 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $303 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $527 −$78 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $255 +$90 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $184 +$72 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $192 +$5 +3%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $173 +$18 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $353 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $303 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $435 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $302 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $369 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $306 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $334 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $255 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $355 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $345 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $255 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $192 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records