Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x034e…16f4 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$730 (+21%) realized +$691 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 57% -14.5%
≤30d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 57% -14.5%
≤90d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 57% -14.5%
all 14 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 57% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 57% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 50% -22.7%
15% -19.5% 43% -30.2%
20% -27.4% 43% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$228 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$691
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 35¢ 50¢ $90 $127 +$37 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 42¢ 50¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $208 −$179 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$158 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $124 +$23 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $233 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $313 −$269 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $312 +$244 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $311 +$95 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $514 −$288 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $310 +$196 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $155 +$139 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $156 +$171 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $155 +$106 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $18 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.31 · official $169.31 (match) · 73 history records