Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x034f…a6ff crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$53 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate85%44W / 8L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +21.7% +10.1% 85% 81% +4.0%
≤30d 52 +21.7% +10.1% 85% 81% +4.0%
≤90d 52 +21.7% +10.1% 85% 81% +4.0%
all 52 +21.7% +10.1% 85% 81% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 81% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.4% 67% -5.9%
15% -10.0% 44% -15.0%
20% -18.8% 29% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses44 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 69¢ 64¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.61 · official $23.70 · 103 history records