Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x034f…8f4d sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$5
other 33% −$2
politics 12% +$2
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% −$1
tech 5% +$2
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 4 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 50% -29.1%
≤90d 9 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 44% -37.2%
all 24 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 50% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -13.2%
10% -24.2% 46% -21.5%
15% -31.5% 29% -29.1%
20% -38.2% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage150d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 29 $2 $0 +15%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $2 +$1 +26%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Car" or "Supercar" during his next YouTube video? Feb 26 $3 +$4 +170%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $4 $0 +10%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 08 $1 +$1 +43%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? Jan 31 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference? Jan 31 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "N Word" in January? Jan 23 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $2 $0 +23%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jan 19 $1 $0 +8%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $1 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 60¢ $3 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $2 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $2 16d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 29d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 39¢ $1 55d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $2 55d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 79¢ $2 55d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 73¢ $3 55d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 55d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Nuggets 74¢ $1 115d
Will MrBeast say "Car" or "Supercar" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 122d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $1 126d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $3 126d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $1 142d
Will Trump say "N Word" in January? SELL Yes $2 142d
Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 142d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $8 142d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 145d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 146d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $2 146d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $2 146d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 146d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 81¢ $2 146d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 147d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 149d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 149d
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 24¢ $1 149d
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.64 · official $15.64 (match) · 55 history records