Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0353…66af other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
world 27% −$4
politics 21% +$1
sports 8% $0
economics 7% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 9% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 67% 8% -10.4%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 47% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage297d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $27 −$8 -31%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $36 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $37 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $0 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $26 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 62¢ $37 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $6 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $23 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $9 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $37 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $33 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.03 · official $29.86 (match) · 130 history records