Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0353…c2ff sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 196d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$73,488 (-18%) realized −$73,478 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%50W / 111L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,659per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 197d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$43,020
other 33% −$22,238
crypto 24% −$8,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -99.8% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 51 -99.8% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤90d 51 -99.8% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.9%
all 161 -28.2% -35.0% 31% 30% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 30% -35.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 27% -41.7%
15% -46.9% 22% -47.3%
20% -52.1% 17% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$3,589) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,802 vs −$2,436 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$1,370
Realized−$73,478
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses50 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 111
History coverage197d ⚠
Avg bet$3,659
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $1,380 $1,370 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Jun 17 $2,720 −$2,720 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Victoria Mboko Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $553 −$553 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5,449 −$5,449 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 17 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2,395 −$2,395 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jun 17 $2,850 −$2,850 -100%
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $560 −$560 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $301 −$301 -100%
Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,210 −$2,210 -100%
Will Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4AM ET Jun 17 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Jun 17 $374 −$374 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-29? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 17 $262 −$351 -134%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Jun 17 $688 −$688 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5) Jun 17 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$143 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06? Jun 17 $486 −$486 -100%
Will FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,088 −$4,088 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 17 $488 −$488 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 17 $465 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 9AM ET Jun 17 $4,258 −$4,258 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29? Jun 17 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Alex de Minaur Jun 17 $1,435 −$1,435 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,457 −$1,457 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $389 −$389 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1,162 −$1,072 -92%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $3,970 −$3,970 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Jun 17 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,393 1h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $3,777 140d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 53¢ $1,325 140d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 53¢ $4,706 140d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 53¢ $295 140d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 53¢ $26 140d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic BUY Musetti 53¢ $9 140d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $13,333 163d
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $26,788 166d
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,000 166d
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $35 166d
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,500 166d
Lightning vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 166d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-01? BUY Yes 40¢ $20,000 166d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,809 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $43 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,154 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $495 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $92 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $206 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $2,505 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $690 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $498 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3,722 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $28 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,170 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $480 168d
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,370.00 · official $1,370.00 (match) · 3500 history records