Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0354…6570 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$961 (-2%) realized −$961 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%10W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$677per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$32
politics 36% −$23
sports 10% −$912
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 +6.9% -3.2% 15% 12% -11.4%
all 72 +5.2% -4.9% 14% 11% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 11% -11.3%
10% -14.0% 11% -19.8%
15% -22.3% 11% -27.6%
20% -29.9% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$862) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$961
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage91d
Avg bet$677
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $535 $535 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $744 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,824 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $219 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $408 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $307 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 25 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $25 +$11 +46%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $881 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $22 +$46 +206%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $832 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,674 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $843 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $234 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $234 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $257 21h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $535 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $845 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $847 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $303 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $304 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $690 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $692 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $725 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $726 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $767 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $768 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $713 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $714 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $692 19d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $693 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $718 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $719 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $731 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.04 · official $535.04 (match) · 194 history records