Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x0358…30e2 sports 793 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$460 (-1%) realized −$643 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%533W / 258L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$505
30 days−$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$89
crypto 45% −$286
other 2% −$222
weather 0% −$20
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 20% -33.6%
≤30d 208 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 569 -4.3% -13.5% 70% 29% -10.3%
all 791 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 28% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 17% -19.3%
15% -31.5% 14% -27.1%
20% -38.2% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized−$643
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses533 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions2
Markets (closed)791 / 793
History coverage111d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner T1 33¢ 100¢ $60 $183 +$123 (+204%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 58¢ 88¢ $120 $180 +$60 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $3 $0 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $196 −$196 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $196 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $76 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $30 15m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $30 16m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $61 26m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 10¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 19¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $41 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 4d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 94¢ $3 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 92¢ $2 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 89¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $91 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.34 · official $363.34 (match) · 3206 history records