Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x035b…9ccc other 30 markets active 8h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-11%) realized +$7 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$43
world 16% −$39
sports 14% +$40
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 56% -27.4%
≤30d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -11.1%
≤90d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -11.1%
all 13 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 54% -11.1%
10% -15.8% 54% -19.6%
15% -24.0% 46% -27.3%
20% -31.4% 46% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)13 / 30
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 56¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 59¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 41¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-75%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-55%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$14 +131%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $11 +$23 +214%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $29 +$19 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $11 7h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 3d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 5d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 45¢ $5 5d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 57¢ $11 5d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 6d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.05 · official $89.05 (match) · 71 history records