Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x035b…c6dd crypto 1042 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (304 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$12,124 (-23%) realized −$12,084 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%518W / 356L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day304.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$8,790
weather 7% +$831
sports 4% +$246
other 2% +$193
world 0% +$790
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$18
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (304 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 599 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 33% +14.9%
≤30d 874 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 39% +14.9%
≤90d 874 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 39% +14.9%
all 874 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 39% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover304.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 39% +14.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 35% +3.9%
15% -18.2% 31% -6.1%
20% -26.2% 27% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$964
Realized−$12,084
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses518 / 356
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions198
Markets (closed)874 / 1042
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day304.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 198 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $15 $35 +$20 (+135%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 81¢ 97¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 14¢ $27 $13 −$14 (-52%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 23¢ 88¢ $3 $12 +$9 (+291%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 288 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Humbert Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Central African Republic vs. Togo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $964.16 · official $962.59 (match) · 3500 history records