Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x035b…1991 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+17%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
tech 31% +$43
sports 22% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 5 -19.8% -27.4% 40% 40% -22.6%
all 5 -19.8% -27.4% 40% 40% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 40% -22.6%
10% -34.3% 40% -30.0%
15% -40.7% 40% -36.8%
20% -46.5% 20% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$57 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage66d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 7d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 53d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records