Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x035f…33eb other 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$208 (-6%) realized −$227 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%68W / 439L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$58
14 days−$193
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$373
world 36% +$439
politics 17% −$325
crypto 5% −$21
economics 1% −$38
sports 1% −$32
tech 0% −$11
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -47.2% -52.2% 11% 11% -55.8%
≤30d 241 -53.3% -57.7% 12% 12% -2.0%
≤90d 507 -36.1% -42.2% 13% 13% -4.6%
all 507 -36.1% -42.2% 13% 13% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.2% 13% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -47.7% 12% -13.7%
15% -52.7% 11% -22.1%
20% -57.4% 10% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$5 · ×7.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses68 / 439
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)507 / 533
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 38¢ $6 $35 +$29 (+451%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 25¢ 36¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+46%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 15¢ $3 $8 +$4 (+150%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31? No 1¢ 3¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+274%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+104%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $4 +$46 +1011%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 10 $6 +$6 +102%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $6 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $10 29m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $2 5h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 20h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $4 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $3 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $6 22h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 4d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 8¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 7¢ $4 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY No 5¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.60 · official $123.89 · 3500 history records