Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0366…7568 crypto 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$644 (-6%) realized −$644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%133W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$27
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$20
other 7% −$732
sports 2% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.8% -13.9% 68% 39% -7.3%
≤30d 189 -6.1% -15.0% 66% 53% -12.4%
≤90d 211 -10.0% -18.6% 63% 51% -16.7%
all 211 -10.0% -18.6% 63% 51% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 51% -16.7%
10% -26.4% 38% -24.7%
15% -33.5% 25% -31.9%
20% -40.0% 15% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses133 / 78
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage47d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $205 −$40 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $203 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $132 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $133 +$28 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$68 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $118 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $159 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records