Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0369…3272 weather 105 markets active 3h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$4
weather 23% −$1
tech 16% −$1
other 6% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.0% -9.5% 92% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 63 -2.8% -12.0% 92% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 63 -2.8% -12.0% 92% 0% -12.3%
all 105 -10.3% -18.8% 71% 16% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 16% -12.7%
10% -26.6% 12% -21.1%
15% -33.7% 10% -28.7%
20% -40.2% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $15 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $15 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $15 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $15 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records