Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x036b…5ba9 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%29W / 154L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$12
politics 26% −$9
other 23% −$12
crypto 8% +$1
economics 5% −$3
culture 4% −$4
finance 3% +$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 183 -0.0% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses29 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage161d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $420 −$2 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $214 −$2 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $638 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $950 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $449 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $527 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $188 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $217 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $305 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $642 −$2 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 9h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 13d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 96¢ $64 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 96¢ $64 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 35d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $53 47d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $54 48d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 48d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 48d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $63 48d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $65 48d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $47 48d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $47 48d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $37 48d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $38 49d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $56 49d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $57 49d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 49d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 49d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $56 49d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $56 50d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $50 52d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $1 52d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $40 52d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $0 52d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $8 52d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 796 history records