Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x036b…ead4 sports 66 markets active 9d ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$4,981 (+2%) realized +$5,242 · open −$261
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%44W / 21L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$4,771per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$793est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,095
30 days+$4,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$343
world 25% +$1,898
economics 12% −$931
sports 9% +$4,136
other 5% −$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 53 +37.8% +24.6% 68% 53% -1.8%
≤90d 61 +31.0% +18.5% 67% 46% -8.1%
all 65 +29.1% +16.8% 68% 43% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 43% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 42% -16.8%
15% -4.5% 38% -24.9%
20% -13.9% 26% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$324 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$5,242
Unrealized−$261
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses44 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$793
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage107d
Avg bet$4,771
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $649 $388 −$261 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,752 +$193 +5%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $147 +$53 +36%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $33 +$46 +140%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 15 $296 −$289 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $669 +$315 +47%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 15 $74 +$4 +6%
Pedri: 2+ goals Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $335 +$139 +42%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 15 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,154 +$1,572 +73%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $62 +$18 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21,778 +$193 +1%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $313 −$313 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,043 −$2,042 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $360 −$306 -85%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 14 $170 −$168 -99%
Jürgen Locadia: 1+ assists Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Elye Wahi: 1+ goals Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $129 +$54 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,749 +$28 +0%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $73 −$72 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $51 +$148 +291%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $66 +$255 +388%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $153 +$996 +650%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $75 +$290 +388%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $616 +$616 +100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $58 +$46 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $230 +$239 +104%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $2,528 +$2,472 +98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $500 +$681 +136%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $114 +$97 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $74 +$180 +243%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $135 +$292 +216%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 +$14 +100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $42 +$34 +82%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 14 $124 +$56 +45%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 14 $13 +$9 +67%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 14 $147 +$63 +43%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 14 $117 +$50 +43%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 13 $80 −$77 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $30 +$12 +42%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $422 +$142 +34%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $61 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,054 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,055 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $581 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,059 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $50 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $20 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $638 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $39 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $27 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $9 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $335 9d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $2 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $39 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $8 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $19 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $26 9d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $27 9d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $60 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 69¢ $12 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 69¢ $9 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 69¢ $21 9d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 69¢ $13 9d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 41¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.50 · official $387.50 (match) · 755 history records