Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x036c…0ab5 weather 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%182W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$12
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 143 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 191 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses182 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 193
History coverage124d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28? May 28 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 110-111°F on May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on May 20 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20? May 19 $180 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 17? May 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 36h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $67 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $99 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $173 10d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $175 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $103 11d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $171 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $99 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $86 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $187 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $170 15d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $93 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $182 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.00 · official $192.00 (match) · 411 history records