Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x036c…e838
crypto · 598 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,608 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,743 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$1,743
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses211 / 382
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)593 / 598
History coverage105d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 5 History 593 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$78
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $17 −$10 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $13 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Down 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +112%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$15 +113%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $8 −$5 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $11 −$3 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $27 +$6 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 02 $6 +$9 +151%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$26 +410%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$39 +201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 12? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$1,185
other 21% −$443
sports 7% −$90
finance 2% −$13
world 1% +$3
economics 1% −$33
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 38h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43h
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -42.8% -48.2% 29% 29% -53.2%
≤30d 50 -39.8% -45.6% 24% 22% -45.8%
≤90d 433 -30.0% -36.7% 30% 28% -34.5%
all 593 -14.3% -22.5% 36% 33% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -27.2%
10% -29.9% 28% -34.2%
15% -36.7% 25% -40.6%
20% -42.9% 21% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 1694 history records