Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0370…d000 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14,787 (-3%) realized −$14,787 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 80L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,903per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$9,477est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$214
other 0% +$244
politics 0% −$248
world 0% −$12
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.9% +33.8% 33% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 8 +10.9% +0.4% 25% 25% -10.1%
≤90d 128 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 20% -9.6%
all 128 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 20% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 20% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 11% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$127 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$9,477
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$3,903
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $8,015 −$63 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $32 +$8 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire May 19 $6 −$2 -36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $14,683 +$352 +2%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich May 15 $203 −$14 -7%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Anastasia Zakharova May 15 $202 −$2 -1%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $406 +$25 +6%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic May 15 $115 −$6 -5%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 15 $806 +$3 +0%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings May 15 $16 $0 -0%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Grand Rapids Griffins May 15 $17 +$6 +37%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) May 14 $8 $0 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 May 14 $203 +$1 +1%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 $0 +16%
Valencia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo Berrettini May 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $203 −$99 -49%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC end in a draw? May 14 $62 −$14 -22%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $125 +$25 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $206 −$28 -14%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $202 +$32 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $408 +$39 +10%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $304 −$37 -12%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $306 −$41 -13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 14 $17,478 −$505 -3%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 14 $102 −$56 -55%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $248 +$84 +34%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $135 +$45 +33%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 14 $204 −$7 -4%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $29 +$5 +18%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $102 −$16 -16%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 14 $183 −$16 -9%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $102 +$32 +32%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $88 +$40 +45%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 +$18 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $584 51m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $583 51m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 95¢ $5 54m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 93¢ $5 54m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $136 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $1 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $1 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $2 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $16 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $30 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $4 56m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $3 57m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 10¢ $279 57m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 94¢ $48 58m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 91¢ $46 58m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 85¢ $313 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 84¢ $1,162 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $45 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $45 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $1,556 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $1,415 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 90¢ $54 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $4,490 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 50¢ $327 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records