Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0371…70c3 world 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,272 (+20%) realized +$2,285 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%45W / 114L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$307
14 days−$264
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1,249
other 34% +$913
crypto 3% −$45
sports 1% −$13
finance 1% −$25
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.0% -28.5% 25% 0% -33.8%
≤30d 19 -15.0% -23.1% 11% 5% -17.9%
≤90d 24 +37.6% +24.5% 12% 8% +10.6%
all 159 -4.1% -13.2% 28% 24% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 24% +7.9%
10% -21.5% 19% -2.4%
15% -29.1% 18% -11.8%
20% -36.1% 14% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$12 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,285
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses45 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 163
History coverage132d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $415 −$56 -13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $713 −$247 -35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $12 −$4 -37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $183 −$60 -32%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $81 −$10 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,587 −$66 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $330 +$190 +58%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 27 $52 −$9 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $155 −$8 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $77 −$25 -32%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? May 26 $91 −$46 -50%
New pandemic in 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 26 $97 −$12 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 26 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $15 −$3 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $15 −$5 -32%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $97 +$1,310 +1354%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $117 −$34 -29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 23 $16 −$6 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 23 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 22 $5 −$1 -26%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 20 $594 +$14 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $190 −$33 -18%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $43 −$30 -68%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 15 $471 +$131 +28%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 10 $315 +$70 +22%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 10 $180 −$67 -37%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 10 $1,038 +$1,141 +110%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 08 $410 −$89 -22%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 08 $201 −$61 -30%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 07 $46 −$26 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 06 $40 −$18 -45%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $10 +$15 +160%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 06 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $1 $0 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $96 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $374 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $10 10h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $15 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $7 15h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $8 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY $10 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 44¢ $25 16h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $12 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $7 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 43¢ $198 34h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $23 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 10¢ $108 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY $14 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $10 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $5 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $7 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $12 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $4 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $22 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $223.31 · 1109 history records