Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0373…4057 sports 1138 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$659 (+0%) realized +$538 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%487W / 626L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$1,248est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 208d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,300
other 11% +$235
world 0% +$217
crypto 0% +$158
politics 0% +$19
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +29.3% +17.0% 75% 72% +0.4%
≤30d 163 +19.4% +8.0% 55% 55% +5.5%
≤90d 655 +2.3% -7.4% 47% 47% -8.7%
all 1113 +4.2% -5.7% 44% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -10.7%
10% -14.7% 41% -19.3%
15% -23.0% 41% -27.1%
20% -30.5% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$111 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$1,929
Realized+$538
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses487 / 626
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,248
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1113 / 1138
History coverage208d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 92¢ $978 $1,517 +$539 (+55%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 51¢ $329 $305 −$24 (-7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 12¢ $500 $106 −$394 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $597 +$514 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $985 +$515 +52%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,003 +$597 +60%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,195 −$1,180 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $600 +$300 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $533 +$267 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,059 +$461 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $510 −$504 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $508 +$511 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$57 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $800 −$549 -69%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $494 +$466 +94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $318 +$282 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,004 +$495 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 Jun 22 $606 +$269 +44%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $375 +$410 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $374 −$369 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $605 +$345 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $607 +$377 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $125 +$87 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $90 +$194 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $201 +$40 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $90 +$162 +180%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $173 +$127 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $125 −$123 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $304 −$15 -5%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $125 −$123 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $603 +$297 +49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $398 +$291 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$290 +284%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $90 +$130 +144%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $198 +$102 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $191 −$189 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $615 +$295 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 4m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 9m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 13m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 13m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 14m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $990 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $597 11h
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 12h
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $404 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $509 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $985 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 6¢ $30 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 28¢ $377 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $305 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $1,003 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 57¢ $1,012 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,195 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $600 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $533 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $510 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $1,059 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $242 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $9 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $800 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $190 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,929.01 · official $1,918.70 (match) · 3214 history records