Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0375…da5a other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 22% −$16
politics 9% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$2
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage128d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $231 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $478 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $419 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $384 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $60 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $392 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $563 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $460 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $274 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $28 11h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 12h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 14h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 27h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 29h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 34h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 37h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 46h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.99 · official $56.99 (match) · 1289 history records