Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x0375…2c67
politics · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage319d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $14 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 -10%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 93°F or higher on August 12? Aug 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $16 −$14 -86%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 31 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 31 $62 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% −$1
world 32% $0
other 21% −$14
sports 8% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $24 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $18 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $43 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $17 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 32h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $47 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $47 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.6% -1.8% 17% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 8 +6.6% -3.6% 25% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 8 +6.6% -3.6% 25% 12% -9.7%
all 41 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -10.8%
10% -19.4% 2% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.06 · official $46.06 (match) · 140 history records