Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0375…1226 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1
politics 22% $0
other 21% −$1
crypto 14% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 43 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage318d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $49 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $1 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 6? Aug 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on August 6? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -78%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $21 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $15 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $2 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $38 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $40 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $36 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $36 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $37 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $37 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records