Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0376…4a42 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$49 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 29% -11.4%
≤30d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 29% -11.4%
≤90d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 29% -11.4%
all 14 -13.5% -21.8% 57% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 29% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 14% -19.9%
15% -36.1% 7% -27.6%
20% -42.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 0¢ 60¢ $0 $30 +$30 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $137 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $78 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $81 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $129 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$19 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $38 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $55 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $46 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $40 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $42 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $40 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $38 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $46 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $43 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $47 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $44 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.75 · official $25.75 · 59 history records