Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x0377…ae31 crypto 988 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$343 (+5%) realized +$341 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%426W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$86
14 days+$40
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$49
weather 22% +$100
other 4% −$126
sports 1% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 51% -5.2%
≤30d 276 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 985 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 35% -10.7%
all 985 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 35% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 32% -19.3%
15% -33.1% 30% -27.1%
20% -39.6% 26% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$341
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses426 / 559
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)985 / 988
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 985 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 50¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.94 · official $19.94 (match) · 3500 history records