Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0380…0de3 weather 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$473 (-8%) realized −$462 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate63%55W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$61
14 days+$13
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$443
world 7% +$8
crypto 5% −$103
other 3% +$4
sports 1% +$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 29% -11.4%
≤30d 87 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 29% -17.6%
≤90d 87 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 29% -17.6%
all 87 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 29% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 29% -17.6%
10% -26.1% 14% -25.5%
15% -33.2% 10% -32.7%
20% -39.8% 9% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$28 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$462
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses55 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage19d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? No 97¢ 84¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 22? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $254 −$6 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $222 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $251 +$19 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $82 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $65 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June? Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $160 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $405 −$107 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 −$25 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $140 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$7 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $233 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $50 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $236 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.83 · official $108.83 (match) · 360 history records