Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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03 0x0383…7eef crypto 1302 markets active 3h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,813 (-12%) realized −$5,817 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%640W / 665L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$118
14 days−$251
30 days−$5,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$2,472
other 33% −$5,989
sports 1% +$574
world 0% −$11
weather 0% −$15
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +8.6% -1.7% 49% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 351 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 43% -29.0%
≤90d 1070 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 39% -27.0%
all 1305 -11.4% -19.9% 49% 44% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 44% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 35% -29.4%
15% -34.5% 25% -36.2%
20% -40.9% 18% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$5,817
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses640 / 665
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1305 / 1302
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $16 +$27 +172%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $16 +$12 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$53 +724%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +980%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +102%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$15 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$36 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$21 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $43 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $29 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $60 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $16 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $11 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.85 · official $73.85 (match) · 3500 history records